English Premier League: Leads And Trails

Liverpool’s recent 3-2 loss to QPR after leading by 2 goals and Arsenal comeback streak a few weeks ago have proven the established fact that opening the scoring and taking a comfortable lead does not decide the winner.

As is human tendency, teams become lethargic after taking the lead, especially if it’s more than one goal, because they think they have the 3 points in the bag and feel liberated. On the flipside, the trailing team takes its chances, however bleak the prospects be, and often take points off the team in lead. Though, this “often” is a minority, it is not negligible. There have been quite a few instances this season where the team to score first have lost all three points and some notable ones too. Here, I aim to analyse this minority in detail. 

To begin with, 36 of 309 Premier League matches this season have been won by the side that conceded the first goal. That accounts for 11.6% of all matches. Barring the 21 matches that ended 0-0, the proportion of matches that were won by trailing sides rises to 12.5%.

To put this proportion into a wider perspective, I wish to make a further few subtractions from the total matches in question. 73 games have ended as a draw (that includes games that ended 0-0). This means that 15.25% of all games that produced a result were won by teams that hit back. A further 117 games (excluding 0-0) saw at least one of the sides failing to score. This implies that 21% of all matches in which both teams were won by teams that conceded first.

OPENING THE SCORING

As stats show, Manchester United, Fulham and Bolton are least lethargy-prone and are yet lose a match after scoring the opening goal of the match. But, given the fact that Fulham have scored first only on 11 occasions and Bolton, 8, the defending champions are, by far, the best defenders of the lead. They are also the most prolific openers this season, having made it first to the scoresheet on 26 occasions in 31 matchweeks.

It might come as surprise for some (yes, some) that Chelsea are one of three clubs to have squandered the most points from winning positions. Chelsea, along with Sunderland and QPR have given away 15 points after opening the scoring. But the fact that Chelsea have secured 42 points from winning positions should come as a consolation for their fans. Statistically, Wolves are the worst defenders of the lead, averaging just 1 point-per-game in matches in which they have taken the lead.

Recovery is an art and Arsenal have certainly shown their mastery this season having recovered 19 points from losing positions. Wolves have not been very good at defending goals or leads, but they have shown nerve in coming from behind, with 14 recouped points. But they have also conceded the lead on more occasions (23) than any other team and that pretty much sums up their position in the league table.

Among the worst in recovery are Manchester United and Newcastle, both yet to win after conceding the opening goal. United’s much debated 3-3 draw with Chelsea was one of only two points they have recouped this season.

CONCEDING FIRST AND RECOVERING

This season has surely had some major upsets and thrilling comebacks. With just 7 games to go, I'm hoping for an enthralling title run-in. Do leave your comments below.

You can also follow me on Twitter - @iSpeakFooty.